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The
business of peace
The
Agra summit could take the Kashmir route to give bilateral
trade between India and Pakistan a much-needed boost, says
FARHAN BOKHARI.
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| Shaukat
Aziz |
The
forthcoming summit between Pakistan’s President General Pervez
Musharraf and Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee could begin
setting the pace for closer bilateral economic relations, depending
on the outcome of discussions on the central issue of Kashmir,
Pakistan’s Finance Minister Shaukat Aziz said in an interview
with The Indian Express on Wednesday.
Aziz’s remarks reflected the emerging view within the Pakistani
government where many respond to India’s calls for trade relaxations
with the view that progress must be linked to the progress on
beginning to resolve the dispute over Kashmir. At below US $
200 million a year, the figure for the officially documented
value of bilateral Indo-Pakistan trade, the two south Asian
countries have established few economic linkages. Businessmen
in Pakistan and India say that trade through third countries,
especially Dubai, also represents a modest figure, estimated
by some to be no more than US $ 50 million.
Aziz,
a former top executive with Citicorp who was appointed as
the Finance Minister in 1999, told The Indian Express, ‘‘As
a regional block, it (South Asia) hasn’t done really as well
as some of the other blocks like NAFTA or EU or ASEAN. To
get all the economies leveraging the potential and developing
trade and investment links, it is very important that you
have the right environment conducive to this’’.
Western
diplomats note that President General Musharraf’s recent
references to the need for combating poverty as the
priority issue in south Asia were likely to emerge as
a central theme during his visit to India.
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On
the upcoming summit, Aziz added, ‘‘We should look forward
to the talks (in India) which the president will go to in
a week’s time, with cautious optimism. Once issues like Kashmir
are discussed, other things could follow.’’ Aziz said the
summit was a very encouraging development for peace in a region
which has tremendous potential, plenty of talent and resources,
but also one of the highest concentrations of poverty in the
world.
Meanwhile, western diplomats noted that President General
Musharraf’s recent references to the need for combating poverty
as the priority issue in south Asia were likely to emerge
as a central theme during his visit to India. ‘‘General Musharraf’s
remarks in India could include many references to combating
poverty. It’s the message that he seems to be increasingly
preparing to deliver, if you go by what he has said in recent
interviews,’’ one senior diplomat told The Indian Express
on the condition of anonymity.
But diplomats added that a large part of the resistance from
Pakistan to open trade links with India, comes from the country’s
business community where many feel that the higher cost of
production in a relatively smaller economy by comparison to
India makes them vulnerable to tough competition. Once the
political landscape is cleared, a decision to relax trading
links with India would have to be in stages, only opening
up sectors first where Pakistani businesses and industries
do not feel threatened on a large scale, said another senior
diplomat.
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