The core of the matter

The Kashmir theme song could prove a swansong

So anxious is Pakistan to get across the message that Kashmir is the ‘‘core’’ issue at the Agra summit, that it has begun to tie itself into knots. Not only has this introduced a negative note in bilateral discourse during the crucial run up to Agra, its obsession with its core issue has now made the country deeply suspicious of every confidence building measure that India has undertaken to ease tensions between the two nations. Note the sullen reception Islamabad has accorded to the Indian decision to send the director general of military operations to dialogue with his Pakistani counterpart. Similarly, India’s move to roll back visa restrictions has evoked the almost petulant response that it should have followed the summit, not preceded it. Islamabad would prefer to view these steps as a cynical ploy staged by its neighbour to divert international attention from — yes, the ‘‘core’’ issue that is Kashmir.

As if to underline that he does not intend to stray beyond the core issue when he comes a-visiting, General Musharraf proposes to leave his top aides — with the solitary exception of foreign minister Abdul Sattar — at home. The message sought to be sent is this: let’s not have a squeak out of you on such peripheral issues as trade and commerce, don’t even entertain thoughts on the gas pipeline or about opening up the borders until — yes, the ‘‘core’’ issue of Kashmir is settled. How much of this is posture and how much policy, is difficult to say. It is known that General Musharraf has a loud, single-minded and militant domestic constituency, which has been chanting Kashmir-Kashmir-Kashmir all these long years, to take along with him as he walks the tight rope to Agra. But in his anxiety to accommodate this boisterous brood, he must take care to ensure that he doesn’t step out of line and on to ether.

Everybody on both sides of the border, including some well-known hawks, sense a historic opportunity in the Agra process. But will the general allow his grand obsession to come in the way of realising it by allowing Kashmir so much play that it blots out everything else? It is a question that only he can answer. There is little doubt though that should he choose to do so, he would be cutting his nose to spite his face. Pakistan may brag interminably about bringing India to its knees over Kashmir and certainly this country has had to pay a heavy price, both financially and — more importantly — in terms of human lives. However, going by every indicator, there can be little doubt about which of the two nations has had to pay a heavier price for this albatross called Kashmir. The newly-released Human Development Report reveals this well enough. Pakistan trails India by 12 notches in its human development index ranking, reversing the picture of a decade ago, when it was India that was trailing Pakistan. Indeed, according to a report carried in this newspaper, if things go on this way the Indian economy could be around 12 times as large as that of Pakistan by the year 2010, although at one stage it was the latter that had a decisive edge. Therefore Musharraf must, before he packs his bags for Agra, read the writing on the ledger and realise that the decade of jehad was precisely Pakistan’s lost decade.