In May, the Andhashradha Nirmulan Society (ANS), backed by astrophysicist Jayant Narlikar and the Inter University Centre for Astronomy and Astrophysics (IUCAA), threw an open challenge to astrologers, inviting them to join a test that could settle the age-old debate.
The methodology involved the collection of about 100 horoscopes each of mentally challenged and normal children and handing over about 40 of these at random to the participating astrologers. Based on the data in the horoscopes, the astrologers would be asked to predict which horoscope belonged to a normal child and which to a mentally challenged one.
The logic was the belief that intelligence and mental retardation are the two distinct and prominent characteristics that determine the future of any individual, said Narendra Dabholkar, president of ANS.
Initially many astrologers accepted the challenge but within a few days most withdrew. However, over the past two months, ANS and IUCAA got 50 astrologers to participate and sent them the 40 horoscopes of some brilliant and some mentally challenged children.
Prof Sudhakar Kunte of the Statistics department of University of Pune was given the responsibility of studying and compiling the responses. “I am functioning merely as a neutral observer between the challengers and the participants,” said Kunte who met Dhabolkar and Narlikar at IUCAA on Friday morning to discuss the findings.
“To my knowledge this is the first such scientific test to be conducted in India,” said Dhabolkar.
According to Narlikar, the predictions need to be at least 90 per cent accurate for them to take astrology seriously. “If the predictions are less than 70 per cent correct, then the hypothesis that astrology is a science will be rejected. If the success rate is between 70 and 90 per cent then further testing will be called for,” Narlikar had said while the test was on.
“From my studies of the subject and based on the tests made on it abroad, I do not regard it (astrology) as having a scientific base. However I am keeping an open mind so far as the present test is concerned,” he had said then.
The organisers of the test are tight-lipped about the results, which they will announce on Tuesday at a press conference.
Self-defence
The Jyotish Vidya Prasarak Mandal, which participated in the test, claimed to have shown 51 per cent accuracy. to Siddheshwar Marajkar, one of the five trustees of the mandal, said they were given 200 horoscopes and showed the results to the ANS and Kunte about a fortnight ago, after which they were informed about their performance. Asked whether this puts a cloud over their craft as the accuracy standard was set at 70 per cent, Marajkar said they are satisfied with the results as it is above 50 per cent.